Dollar holds firm as growth fears stalk markets
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South Korean won, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen notes are seen on U.S. 100 dollar bills in this photo illustration taken December 15, 2015. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji//Illustration
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SINGAPORE, July 4 (Reuters) – The dollar held trade-sensitive currencies near multi-year lows on Monday and the euro was under pressure as investors sought safety on fears of a slowing global global growth.
Friday’s data showed eurozone inflation hit another record high, bolstering the case for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates this month. Read more
While the common currency was steady at $1.0435 on Monday, it’s barely above May’s five-year low of $1.0349 and highlights the market’s preference for the dollar as the gloom clouds speculation. prospects.
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The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit two-year lows on Friday and were not far off those levels at the start of the Asian session, with the Aussie down 0.3% to $0.6796, after falling at $0.6764 on Friday. The kiwi slid 0.1% to $0.6197.
Trade is expected to ease ahead of the Independence Day holiday in the United States.
Security flows tend to support the greenback, especially at the expense of trade and export-oriented currencies, when the global economy is weak. This kept the dollar high even as growth fears dampened expectations of a US rate hike.
The US Dollar Index came in at 105.100, not far below the two-decade high of 105.790. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s widely followed GDP Now forecast fell to -2.1% annualized for the second quarter, implying that the country was already in a technical recession. Read more
“The Aussie and other commodity currencies and even the Euro and British Pound are likely to fall even further in the week given that markets are currently very focused on the risk of a sharp downturn in the global economy,” said Carol Kong, currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
The pound hit a two-week low of $1.1976 on Friday and last bought $1.2095.
Ahead of this week, Australia’s central bank will meet on Tuesday and investors are also awaiting the release of minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and US jobs data on Friday.
Markets have been pricing in a 40 basis point (bp) rise in Australia, so the Aussie may miss out on a boost if that materializes.
Minutes from Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy meeting will almost certainly appear hawkish given that the committee opted to raise rates by 75 basis points.
The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another 75 basis point rise this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by the end of the year – ahead of the cuts in 2023.
Against Asian currencies, the dollar posted gains on Friday that took it to its highest levels in years against the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah and Singapore dollar.
The Chinese yuan started the stable onshore session at 6.7021 per dollar.
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Bid rates for currencies at 01:35 GMT
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Reporting by Rae Wee; Writing and additional reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Sonali Desai
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